Job opportunities and the local economy are still in a slump, according to the Toledo Index of Leading Economic Indicators produced by The University of Toledo College of Business Administration.
The index is a quarterly report on business conditions in the Toledo metropolitan area that uses key indicators of regional economic activity like the average workweek, new orders for local manufactured goods, and new building permit authorization.
The index dropped 5.1 percent during the first quarter, putting it at the lowest level, 96.0, since it peaked in early 2000 at 109.5. According to Dr. Paul Kozlowski, professor of finance and business economics, the economy has shown weak signs of recovery in the last year, but significant increases have not taken hold. “The index reflects the weak economic conditions nationwide,” explained Kozlowski. “Economic recovery in Toledo has not yet taken hold.”
According to the index, there are fewer manufacturing jobs in Toledo now than in 2002. “Jobs in local manufacturing industries also continued to fall this quarter, dropping by 1 percent. But this is better than the 3 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 2002,” said Kozlowski.
The only favorable change during the first three months of 2003 is there is a slight drop in initial claims for employment insurance, consistent with the last three quarters, but according to Kozlowski, the number of claims is still relatively high for the Toledo area.
“Although some positive signs exist, the economic signal at the start of 2003 indicates that recovery has failed to take hold in Toledo,” explained Kozlowski. “If the national economy gains, than we may see a reversal in the downtrend, but I don’t think it will happen before mid-year.”
